Will the Arctic become ice-free this century? Will the Northwest Passage support viable year-round shipping? How will changes impact wildlife? How will Northern communities be affected? These are among questions raised about the future of the Arctic, trying to anticipate effects of possible global warming.

Attempts by scientists to predict climatic change have depended using atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-biosphere models. These models produce many types of output (e.g.., temperature, precipitation, ice extent, vegetation) spanning hundreds of years.

On these pages, we will examine both seasonal changes in Arctic sea ice extent and changes in average ice extent over many years based upon various data sources compared with outputs from several models. We evaluate overall ice extent from "concentration" (a measure of the fraction of each unit area covered by ice). The ability of the models to accurately predict ice concentration is examined by comparing model concentrations with observed arctic ice concentrations.

The first documents steps required to make the comparison. Results are then discussed.

By studying observed ice thickness and snow depth data from several stations in the Canadian Arctic, we seek trends in the data that may indicate some impacts of climatic change. We identify areas of concern that may result from changing Arctic sea ice.

Polar bears may be especially at risk as their ability to catch prey (seals) depends upon sea ice.

MAIN INDEX

SECTION 1: COMPARISON OF OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT

Dysfonction érectileData Acquisition:

• briefly describes each data set, grid features, and format of data
• links to online documentation

Interpolation:

To enable "clean" ("apples to apples") intercomparison of different observational data and output from different numerical models, we have defined a single domain with a common definition of grid points. For the purpose of this study, we identify a "high arctic" domain from Bering Strait to the coast of Norway, including passages in the Canadian Archipelago but omitting regions such as Hudson Bay / Foxe Basin, Baffin Bay / Labrador Sea, and the Bering, Okhotsk and Japan Seas. The different data and outputs are interpolated onto the common grid in a uniform way.

• describes interpolation methods
• links to FORTRAN routines used to interpolate data

Time Series:

• contains time series of processed ice coverage, comparing observed data with model output
• statistics such as yearly averages and yearly minima are plotted from 1900 to 2100 (as available)

Ice Data:

• contains the ice concentration and thickness timeseries data used in this study, most of which is interpolated onto a standard Arctic grid for comparison. The data is made available for downloading. Routines used in processing the data is included.

SECTION 2: CANADIAN ARCTIC Ice and Snow

Eastern and Western Canadian Arctic

• discussion of temporal coverage, grid features
• time series plots of approximate summer minima

Landfast Arctic Ice Thickness:

• ice thickness and snow depth data from 4 Canadian stations
• time series of maximum ice thickness and open-water duration
• correlation between ice thickness and snow depth

SECTION 3: THREAT - AND OPPORTUNITY

Impacts of Climatic Change on Arctic Wildlife

Economic Costs and Benefits of Projected Change

These pages were developed by Erica Muzzerall and updated by Daniel Roberge, physics coop students at the University of Victoria, while working at the Institute of Ocean Sciences.

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